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What Is This?

Trump is the only person on Earth who can move global markets with a single social media post. This project applies brute-force computation to find statistically significant patterns between his posting behavior and stock market movements.

Not gut feeling. Not opinion. Pure data.

• 7,400+ Truth Social posts analyzed (3 independent sources, cross-verified)
• 31.5 million model combinations tested via brute-force search
• 551 surviving rules that passed train/test validation
• 61.3% hit rate across 566 verified predictions (z=5.39, p<0.05)
• Closed-loop system: predict → verify → learn → evolve → repeat daily

Key Discoveries

#	Finding	Evidence	Impact
1	Pre-market RELIEF = strongest buy signal	Apr 9, 2025: S&P +9.52%	Avg +1.12% same-day
2	TARIFF→SHORT is 70% wrong	Circuit breaker analysis	Auto-reversed to LONG
3	China signals hidden on Truth Social only	203 TS posts / 0 on X	1.5x weight boost
4	Truth Social publishes 6.2h before X	38/39 posts matched	6-hour trading window
5	Pure tariff day = most dangerous	Apr 3: -4.84%, Apr 4: -5.97%	Avg -1.057%
6	4 signals combo = most profitable	12 occurrences, 66.7% up	Avg +2.792%
7	Silence = 80% bullish	Zero-post days analysis	Avg +0.409%
8	Late-night tariff tweets = anti-indicator	62% wrong → reverse = 62% right	Auto-inverted

System Architecture

Trump posts on Truth Social
         │
         ▼ (detected every 5 min)
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Real-Time Engine                                    │
│  Detect → Classify signals → Dual-platform boost →   │
│  Event pattern check → Snapshot PM + S&P 500 →       │
│  Predict → Track at 1h/3h/6h → Verify               │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Daily Pipeline (11 steps)                           │
│  Fetch → Analyze → Run 551 rules → Predict →         │
│  Verify → Circuit Breaker → Prediction Market check → │
│  Learn (promote/demote/eliminate) →                   │
│  Evolve (crossover/mutation/distill) →                │
│  AI Briefing → Sync to GitHub                        │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Three Brains                                        │
│  🧠 Opus — deep causal analysis                      │
│  🧬 Evolver — breeds new rules from survivors        │
│  🔒 Circuit Breaker — stops if system degrades       │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Output                                              │
│  📊 Dashboard  💬 Chatbot  📡 API  💻 CLI  🤖 MCP   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Model Leaderboard

11 named strategy models, ranked by verified performance:

#	Model	Strategy	Hit Rate	Avg Return	Trades
🥇	A3	Pre-market RELIEF → same-day surge	72.7%	+1.206%	11
🥈	D3	Post volume spike → panic bottom	70.2%	+0.306%	47
🥉	D2	Signature switch → formal statement	70.0%	+0.472%	80
4	B3	Pre-market ACTION + positive mood → rise	66.7%	+0.199%	33
5	C1	Burst posting → long silence → go long	65.3%	+0.145%	176
6	B1	3 signals combo → buy 3 days	64.7%	+0.597%	17
7	B2	3-day tariff streak → Deal pivot	57.9%	+0.721%	19
8	A1	Tariff during market hours → next-day drop	56.5%	-0.758%	23
⚠️	A2	DEAL signal → next-day rise	52.2%	+0.029%	90
⚠️	C2	Market brag → short-term top	45.0%	+0.105%	60
🗑️	C3	Late-night tariff → gap open (anti-indicator)	37.5%	-0.414%	8

Dual-Platform Intelligence (Truth Social vs X)

Finding	Data	Trading Implication
China = 100% hidden from X	203 TS posts / 0 X posts	China signals are more authentic
TS publishes 6.2h before X	38/39 posts matched	6-hour arbitrage window
X posting correlates with market	r=0.35	He uses X when confident
X day returns 7x higher	+0.252% vs +0.037%	X appearance = confirmation signal

Prediction Markets Integration

Live tracking of Trump-related prediction markets via Polymarket:

• 316+ active Trump markets tracked in real-time
• Dual-track snapshots: Polymarket prices + S&P 500 simultaneously
• Signal → market correlation analysis
• Kalshi cross-platform spread detection

Live Dashboard

→ trumpcode.washinmura.jp

Real-time dashboard showing:

• Latest Trump posts with signal analysis
• Today's signals and market consensus
• Live Polymarket Trump markets
• Model rankings with performance bars
• 30-second auto-refresh

API Endpoints

Base URL: https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp

Endpoint	Description
GET /api/dashboard	All data in one call
GET /api/signals	Latest signals + 7-day history
GET /api/models	Model performance rankings
GET /api/status	System health summary
GET /api/recent-posts	Latest 20 Trump posts + signal analysis
GET /api/polymarket-trump	Live Trump prediction markets (316+)
GET /api/playbook	Three playbooks (hedge/position/pump)
GET /api/insights	Crowd-sourced trading insights
GET /api/data	Downloadable dataset catalog
GET /api/data/{file}	Download raw data files
POST /api/chat	AI chatbot (Gemini Flash)

Open Data

All data is 100% public. Clone and explore:

File	Description	Updated
trump_posts_all.json	Full Truth Social archive (44,000+ posts)	Daily
trump_posts_lite.json	Posts with signals pre-tagged	Daily
x_posts_full.json	X (Twitter) full archive	Daily
predictions_log.json	566 verified predictions with outcomes	Daily
surviving_rules.json	551 active rules (brute-force + evolved)	Daily
daily_report.json	Daily trilingual report	Daily
trump_playbook.json	Three playbooks (hedge/position/pump)	Weekly
signal_confidence.json	Signal confidence scores (auto-adjusted)	Daily
opus_analysis.json	Claude Opus deep analysis	On demand
learning_report.json	Learning engine report	Daily
evolution_log.json	Rule evolution log (crossover/mutation)	Daily
circuit_breaker_state.json	System health + error analysis	Daily
daily_features.json	384 features × 414 trading days	Daily
market_SP500.json	S&P 500 OHLC history	Daily

Quick Start

# Clone
git clone https://github.com/sstklen/trump-code.git
cd trump-code
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Check today's signals
python3 trump_code_cli.py signals

# Run any of the 12 analyses
python3 analysis_06_market.py    # Posts vs S&P 500 correlation
python3 analysis_09_combo_score.py  # Multi-signal combo scoring

# Run brute-force model search (~25 min)
python3 overnight_search.py

# Start real-time monitor
python3 realtime_loop.py

# Start web dashboard + chatbot
export GEMINI_KEYS="key1,key2,key3"
python3 chatbot_server.py
# → http://localhost:8888

CLI Commands

python3 trump_code_cli.py signals    # Today's detected signals
python3 trump_code_cli.py models     # Model performance leaderboard
python3 trump_code_cli.py predict    # LONG/SHORT consensus
python3 trump_code_cli.py arbitrage  # Prediction market opportunities
python3 trump_code_cli.py health     # System health check
python3 trump_code_cli.py report     # Full daily report
python3 trump_code_cli.py json       # All data as JSON

MCP Server (for Claude Code / Cursor)

Add to ~/.claude/settings.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "trump-code": {
      "command": "python3",
      "args": ["/path/to/trump-code/mcp_server.py"]
    }
  }
}

9 tools: signals, models, predict, arbitrage, health, events, dual_platform, crowd, full_report

Contributing

We need the world's eyes on this. One team can't decode Trump alone.

Ways to Help

1. Propose new features — Open an issue: what to track, why it matters, how to detect it
2. Run your own analysis — Clone the data, find patterns, submit a PR
3. Verify predictions — Check daily_report.json against actual market closes
4. Share trading logic — Use the chatbot to share insights (best ones get absorbed)

Ideas We Haven't Tried

Idea	Difficulty
Correlate with Bitcoin/Gold/Oil	Easy
Analyze image/video posts	Medium
Track which accounts he retweets before big moves	Easy
Cross-reference with his public schedule	Medium
Detect if posts are written by him vs staff	Hard
Analyze deleted posts and edit history	Medium

File Structure

trump-code/
├── public/insights.html          # Dashboard (single-file, no build)
├── chatbot_server.py             # Web server + all API endpoints
├── realtime_loop.py              # Real-time monitor (every 5 min)
├── daily_pipeline.py             # Daily pipeline (11 steps)
├── learning_engine.py            # Promote/demote/eliminate rules
├── rule_evolver.py               # Crossover/mutation/distill
├── circuit_breaker.py            # System health + auto-pause
├── event_detector.py             # Multi-day event patterns
├── dual_platform_signal.py       # Truth Social vs X analysis
├── polymarket_client.py          # Polymarket API client
├── kalshi_client.py              # Kalshi API client
├── arbitrage_engine.py           # Cross-platform arbitrage
├── mcp_server.py                 # MCP server (9 tools)
├── trump_code_cli.py             # CLI interface
├── trump_monitor.py              # Post monitor
├── analysis_01_caps.py           # CAPS code analysis
├── analysis_02_timing.py         # Posting time patterns
├── analysis_03_hidden.py         # Hidden messages (acrostic)
├── analysis_04_entities.py       # Country & people mentions
├── analysis_05_anomaly.py        # Anomaly detection
├── analysis_06_market.py         # Posts vs S&P 500
├── analysis_07_signal_sequence.py # Signal sequences
├── analysis_08_backtest.py       # Strategy backtesting
├── analysis_09_combo_score.py    # Multi-signal scoring
├── analysis_10_code_change.py    # Signature change detection
├── analysis_11_brute_force.py    # Brute-force rule search
├── analysis_12_big_moves.py      # Big move prediction
├── data/                         # All data (100% open)
└── tests/                        # Test suite

Disclaimer

FOR RESEARCH AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

This project is NOT financial advice. Do NOT make investment decisions based on these findings.

Statistical Limitations:

• 31.5 million model combinations tested. Even with train/test validation, surviving models may include false positives due to multiple comparisons (data snooping bias).
• Past patterns do NOT guarantee future results. Correlation ≠ causation.
• Trump can change his communication patterns at any time.

Legal: The authors assume NO liability for financial losses. Data sourced from public archives. Not affiliated with Truth Social, S&P Global, or any government entity. Not registered with any financial regulatory authority.

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Also By Washin Mura | 和心村的其他專案 | 和心村の他プロジェクト

These are the tools we used to build Trump Code — and everything else.

這些是我們打造 Trump Code 和其他所有專案的工具。

Trump Codeを含む全プロジェクトを作るために使ったツールです。

Project	EN	中文	日本語
5x-cto	Dev pipeline: 1 MAX + 1 Codex = 5x capacity	開發流水線：一個人當五個用	開発パイプライン：1人で5人分	🚀
YES.md	AI governance: safety gates + evidence rules	AI 治理：安全閘門 + 證據規則	AIガバナンス：安全ゲート＋証拠ルール	✅
AI.MD	Convert CLAUDE.md to AI-native format	蒸餾 CLAUDE.md 為 AI 原生格式	CLAUDE.mdをAIネイティブ形式に	📝
Washin Playbook	The full story: 7 chapters, zero coding	完整故事：7 章，零程式背景	全記録：7章、プログラミング経験ゼロ	📚

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